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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.